The eastbound transpacific shipping lanes are bracing for a significant wave of blank sailings in the coming weeks, as container lines scramble to adapt to wildly fluctuating demand—an aftershock of tariff uncertainty stemming from policies introduced during President Trump’s administration.
According to leading analysts at Sea-Intelligence Consulting, the number of weekly blank sailings from Asia to the US West Coast is set to peak during the week of April 28 to May 3. During this period, ten scheduled services will be cancelled, amounting to a 28% reduction in weekly shipping capacity. Week 20, spanning May 12 to 18, is forecast to see a similar cut, with ten blank sailings equaling 25% of the route’s capacity—a figure that could climb as carriers continue to announce cancellations with minimal notice.
“This sudden increase represents a dramatic shift in the market,” Sea-Intelligence noted in its latest report. The analysts likened the scale of the blank sailings to seasonal patterns typically seen during major Chinese holidays such as Lunar New Year and Golden Week. However, what’s unusual is the lack of lead time for shippers, many of whom are being caught off guard.
US importers relying on East and Gulf Coast ports face even sharper disruptions. During the week of May 5 to 11 (week 19), nine services are expected to be blanked—resulting in a staggering 42% reduction in overall trade capacity.
While firm data on cancelled bookings from Asia remains limited—largely due to delays in collating trade records—estimates from Chinese sources suggest that cancellations are currently running between 30% and 60%. Sea-Intelligence believes the blank sailing announcements are the clearest, most immediate indicators of booking-level demand.
“At present, this is likely one of the best real-time signals of how container demand is being impacted,” the report states. “The situation is severe: carriers expect demand to fall by 28% on Asia–North America West Coast routes in week 18, and by as much as 42% on Asia–North America East Coast routes in week 19.”
Meanwhile, Drewry’s Blank Sailings Tracker has logged 72 blanked sailings scheduled through the end of May. Of these, 56% are on the transpacific routes, 31% on Asia–Europe, and 14% on the transatlantic. Drewry warns this figure is likely to grow, especially on the transpacific eastbound route.
“A continued rise in cancelled sailings is anticipated, particularly in the eastbound transpacific trade. Booking cancellations are still climbing, and some vessels may depart China with large volumes of unutilized capacity through May,” the consultancy reported.
The persistent uncertainty surrounding US–China tariffs has left many cargo owners in a holding pattern—either cancelling shipments outright or pausing cargo at its origin point to avoid unpredictable costs.
For supply chain managers and shippers, the message is clear: brace for more turbulence, and plan for reduced capacity in the weeks ahead.